At the height of the North Korean nuclear crisis in , then-U. Although Mattis did not believe Trump would launch a preemptive strike on North Korea, plans for such a war were on hand, Woodward wrote. Mattis, who was always accompanied when moving by an entire communications team, was also imbued by Trump with the power to issue an order to shoot if a North Korean missile appeared to threaten the U.
Throughout , North Korea conducted 21 test launches, including two over Japan in August and September, as well as firing its most powerful weapon, the Hwasong intercontinental ballistic missile, in November. Experts believe that the missile is capable of striking most if not all of the continental United States. In August, after a North Korean Hwasong intermediate range ballistic missile flew over Hokkaido , Mattis could see that military pressure was not being felt or seen by Pyongyang, Woodward wrote.
His rhetoric, unseen by a U. The book also pointed to two underreported events that highlighted just how precarious the situation on the Korean Peninsula had become from July to September. What can be brought to bear? The initial goal of this combined force would be to make a simultaneous attack on all identified North Korean hardened artillery sites and tunnels that could house mobile artillery within range of the greater Seoul metropolitan area. Since the U.
This would buy alliance commanders extra time and flexibility for subsequent moves. In conjunction with the initial strike, the remainder of U. While some may dismiss this scenario because the concentration of forces it requires would alert the North to an impending attack, what is important to note is that the U. This realization places the much-publicized reinforcement of U. The dispatch of three carrier strike groups to the Sea of Japan in November , and repeated overflights of the Korean peninsula by U.
This would be an indispensable element of denial and deception in any phased deployment before a preemptive attack. Consideration must also be given to two U. General info Location. North Korea. Report Scenarios. Security challenges. Donald Trump Kim Jong-un military military exercises nuclear weapons sanctions strategy. Captain James E. Despite peace overtures, the U. Still tense All this optimism, however, cannot overshadow t he explosive situation on the peninsula.
Scary equation Even those convinced of the dangers do not always believe anything can be done. Intelligence network In addition to this detailed operational planning, the U. Target list The ultimate question is whether the combined militaries of the U. Frequent overflights of U. Delivery systems What can be brought to bear? Handy option While some may dismiss this scenario because the concentration of forces it requires would alert the North to an impending attack, what is important to note is that the U.
More on subject. There are several possibilities. He could be trying to reintegrate his country with the global community, maneuvering for tactical advantage or preparing for an exit from power. The latter carries the most risk and could destabilize the Lord Alton of Liverpool has chaired a parliamentary committee on North Korea for 10 years. Click through to see more scenes from the Korean War. Hide Caption. The war began on June 25, , when the North Korean People's Army crossed the 38th parallel and easily overwhelmed South Korean forces in a surprise attack.
On June 30, , President Harry S. Truman ordered American troops into the fighting. The armistice ending the war was signed in July , and its terms included the creation of the Demilitarized Zone. Scenes from the Korean War — A U. Army chaplain prays by injured soldiers at a combat field hospital in August Scenes from the Korean War — U.
Marines attack Hagaru-ri, North Korea, in December Scenes from the Korean War — Gen. Douglas MacArthur, center, head of the U. Scenes from the Korean War — The th U. Scenes from the Korean War — North Korean prisoners of war make baskets on the floor of a storage barn at a prison, circa Scenes from the Korean War — Marines use a flamethrower in April Marines duck for cover in a bunker as a shell explodes in April The 'original sin'.
For North Koreans, destruction came from above. The conflict is seen as the first large-scale air campaign conducted by the US Air Force. Kim also has large quantities of VX , an even deadlier chemical weapon, and has already shown a willingness, and ability, to use it against civilian targets abroad. Retired Lt. The fact that they were able to use it so precisely — to kill only one person and not even injure the two handlers — indicates a high degree of technical skill and a clear willingness to use a weapon of mass destruction against civilian targets.
That needs to be factored into the equation when we think about what Kim would do to preempt an attack or retaliate for one. The Pentagon already assumes that its airbases in and around South Korea would be among the first places Kim tried to hit with chemical weapons like sarin.
But they worry an attack could nevertheless make it significantly harder for the US to launch air raids against the North by causing panic and chaos on the bases that house the American warplanes, bombers, and troops. Retired Air Force Lt. Washington would also try to kill senior North Korean military commanders and government officials, including Kim. They try to game out all the various ways North Korea could hit the facilities, and to prepare accordingly. The Pentagon has a sizable military presence in neighboring Japan, and the island of Guam is a US territory that is home to more than , American citizens.
Andrew Weber, formerly the assistant secretary of defense for nuclear, chemical, and biological defense programs, told me that the US and South Korea would also need to be prepared for Kim to use biological weapons against both military and civilian targets.
They are some of the most frightening substances on earth, and Weber expects some of them to be used against South Korean ports, airfields, and cities as a way of killing large numbers of civilians and troops while causing terror on a nationwide scale. North Korea could theoretically fire missiles with payloads of anthrax or other biological weapons into South Korea, or use drones to disperse the lethal substances from the air.
The researchers wrote that Kim could also have some of his citizens secretly bring the weapons into the South:. North Korea has , special forces; even a handful of those special forces armed with BW would be enough to devastate South Korea.
What is alarming about human vectors is that they do not need sophisticated training or technology to spread BW amongst the targets, and they are difficult to detect in advance of an attack. It is theoretically possible that North Korean sleeper agents disguised as cleaning and disinfection personnel could disperse BW agents with backpack sprayers.
Another possibility is that North Korean agents will introduce BW into water supplies for major metropolitan areas. In , Weber helped design a war game centered on a simulated North Korean biological weapons attack on the South. The exercise, Able Response , brought together hundreds of military and civilian officials from the US and South Korea. The goals were to figure out the best ways to detect an attack, identify what substance had been used, limit the spread of the virus, and then rush vaccines and other medical care to the infected to save as many lives as possible.
US bases in South Korea received new environmental surveillance systems designed to quickly detect the presence of a biological agent. Still, Weber said his main takeaway was the near impossibility of preventing biological weapons from killing an astonishing number of people. In some cases, it was significantly higher because the infection spread to Japan or other nearby countries. North Korea is thought to have about 50 nukes.
The US, by contrast, has an astonishing 6, nuclear weapons surpassed only by Russia, which has an estimated 7, weapons. Trump — or one of his successors — could respond to a North Korean nuclear strike by destroying every major North Korean city in a matter of hours. Experts inside and outside the US government who study North Korea say that Kim is a rational leader with a singular focus on maintaining control of his country. And for a long time, they believed that Kim would only use his nuclear weapons if he were facing military defeat and the imminent collapse of his government.
It would be the last gasp of a dying regime, one determined to kill as many of its enemies as possible before the end came.
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